Trump's Views Against Free Trade are Dumb

Now that the election is over Donald Trump is fair game for criticism even to those among my network who supported his election (or voted for him) because of their certainty that Hilary Clinton was a worse option on immigration, foreign policy, economics, or for any other reason. And I will be criticising. It's nothing personal, it's just business. Trump is clickbait, I have important things to teach about economics, and if I can get interest by breaking down his policies then I see no reason why I should not invoke his name.

Trump is not a libertarian candidate on any of our three platforms (foreign policy, civil liberties or economics); but as this is an economics blog its only his economic platform I will discuss. If Trump's supporters (and even his detractors) can see clearly on these issues than perhaps they can influence him by assimilation. The fact is, for the main part, your average person - whether they are a Trump supporter or hater - doesn't know why these policies don't work and so I figure it's well worth an explanation.


Trump's economic policies seem to comprise of a strange mix right-wing nationalism and left-wing opposition to free market capitalism on the dubious grounds that it is "bad for workers." (Slip in "American" before workers and you get the combination of the two.)

I think Trump largely made these appeals on the campaign trail because they are populist in nature and can win votes by an age old method. Identify an external enemy and decry them, then declare your ability to combat and defeat them. In Trump's case, this enemy has been China, and while I am glad that he chose a trade rival rather than a military one (so glad!) I really hope that he does not start a trade-war with China when he takes The Oval Office.

Despite Trump's protestations, it does not damage a nation when jobs are moved abroad because that nation can import those products from nations where they are produced cheaper. In economics this is called the principle of Comparative Advantage. Each nation is particularly proficient or well suited to producing certain types of goods and services - and each can benefit from trading with others for that reason. This applies even if one nation is better at producing more or even all goods than the other. (Rather than reinvent the wheel by explaining this allow me to signpost you to an article that does it sufficiently well.) (also see: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/law-comparative-advantage.asp)

Each nation can benefit from specialisation and producing what they are best at, and the free market will naturally tend to flow towards them doing that through the incentives that it offers. (The more nations do this the richer they will become, the less they do this the poorer they will become.) The incontrovertible fact is that labour costs are particularly high in America as compared to poorer countries and therefore their comparative advantage is not largely in manufacturing at the moment. What this requires of America, as a nation, is that they move more towards a skills economy and away from a manufacturing one. America is frankly too rich for most manufacturing jobs, and it doesn't make any sense for most of them to be done in the USA. If those jobs are allowed to be moved abroad to poorer countries over a period of transition, in the long term everyone stands to gain. As those goods will become cheaper, Americans will be able to benefit from lower living costs and will have more left over to spend on other products (American or otherwise.)  Poorer nation will also benefit from the influx of American dollars which they can then spend on goods that will increase their own living standards. Trump has decried trade deficits, but the big secret is that dollars can only be spent on American products and so must find their way back to America eventually in the form of increased imports.

What is more, as those countries become richer and develop, more people in those countries - too - will move away from agricultural and manufacturing jobs into thinking professions. When they do this will be a boon for the entire world; those populations will themselves begin inventing all sorts of ideas and devices that will benefit Americans.

America should kiss most manufacturing goodbye and focus on creating a dynamic, diverse, highly intellectual and skilled workforce. That will require reforming the schools, and abolishing all minimum wage laws restricting internships so that people can take low paying jobs to learn skills that lead to high paying jobs. This would also allow the movement of manufacturing to be phased out rather than removed all at once as lower wages will encourage businesses to stick around longer.  (Note Trump has said nothing about freezing or reversing minimum wage, in fact he said it should be raised to $10 an hour. If you think the minimum wage is a good thing let me signpost you to this article which explains in detail why it is not.)

Trump appears to think that other countries dumping cheap Steel in America is bad for Americans, because it undercuts American-produced steel, but that is not the case either. The very idea was satirised by Frederic Bastiat in his essay Candle Stick Makers Petition, where the candle-makers claim that it is unfair that they have to compete with the sun which is giving out free light and so the government should blot it out. When foreign steel is dumped in America. it is going to benefit every industry that uses steel. Even if the domestic steel industry suffers for a while, of what consequence is that to the wider economy? That's like saying it's unfair to the fridge-makers if your neighbour offers you his spare fridge for free. The value of steel is only going to increase in the long term as it becomes more scarce - and at the time when it becomes profitable for the domestic industries open up again later their product will sell for a higher price. Saying this is bad is like saying that someone paying half the price of your car for you is bad. It is only nominally bad to some small number of individuals, it is not bad over the economy as a whole.

Trump is not all bad on economics, he has spoken out against trade deals like "NAFTA." But is it for the right reasons? Free Trade agreements should be written on less than one page. They should simply say "Lets trade." It seems that Trump is angling at "a better deal for American workers" as if such a thing could exist. The best deal is the deal that says anyone can trade with anyone at any time. Any restrictions mean that a small group may be profiting at the expense of everyone else. The agreement to trade is a private agreement between two individuals that government should have no involvement in whatsoever.

Trump stresses that income tax was not an original mandate of government, and that is good. But he wants to replace it with tariffs on "foreign goods." Perhaps tariffs are better than income tax, but that is not the final judgement on the matter: being punched is also better than being stabbed.

Now I defer to the words of a facebook user, who gives a great explanation:
"In understanding the benefits of division of labor, we first understand that wealth is not measured in currency accumulation - wealth is measured in time. The natural state of man is scarcity and poverty, it has been a recent phenomenon that we have been able to improve the standard quality of life for human beings on this planet. We can relate this to the amount of time or labor now required for the average person to acquire basic necessities for existence - food, shelter, clothing. Without division of labor, I would be left to make my own clothes, to hunt for my own food and to build my own shelter with my labor alone. When we engage in trade, markets emerge which then allow specialization so that each individual can focus on providing his/her time towards the most efficient use of the world's scarce resources. Of course, we know this general process to be known as the free market, whereby all of human action works towards a spontaneous order in which profits reward those that satisfy consumers by their responsible and efficient use of our precious resources, and losses ensure that those who fail to deliver these means to the proper ends either learn from the errors of their ways or move on to find an alternate use of their time. The key to understand is that the spontaneous order of the market is constantly at work to ensure that scarce resources are allocated to their most efficient ends. Over time, savings and investment lead us to improved capital structures, which lengthen the structure of production, but increase efficiency and output. Increased output makes it so that purchasing power is increased by greater abundance of goods and thus general welfare is increased.

So if time has a direct relationship to wealth, the more goods available to the market place, the richer we are. Trump frames the argument that China is taking our jobs by producing lower priced products and therefore China is winning, and we as Americans are losing. The fatal error with this logic is the failure to understand that not only are we all producers, but we are also all consumers. If able to create a product for lower price then that means that less of our income is needed to be spent on that particular good, meaning that less of our TIME is needed to be exchanged for purchase of that good. To this principal, a nation's borders have zero relevancy. To illustrate, if I earn $10 per hour and the average TV is $500, then I must work 50 hours in order to exchange my earnings for that TV set. If the TV is produced at a lower cost so that it is then sold for $250 then I am now more rich because I only have to work 25 hours to exchange my earnings for that same TV. Following the logic of Trump's argument, if we are to focus only on protecting my earnings as a producer, and not my purchasing power as a consumer, then the market scenario would be less favorable. In this anecdote, our ability to produce this TV in the US at a higher cost is granted by the government, by way of tariffs. In a narrow sense, on the margin, the producer of the TV benefits, but society as a whole is poorer. The TV producer keeps his job, but we must all spend more of our time to acquire this good. In the long run, because this protectionist policy will not be limited to just TVs, the TV producer will also be worse off because other goods will cost more under the same economic laws."

Ron Paul also wrote that Donald Trump promises to bring back jobs to America without understanding the major policies that led to their departure in the first place. The financing of America's warfare/welfare state through the printing of phony money by the Federal Reserve and distorted interest rates that encourage consumption and discourage saving and investment.

Trump is right that there aren't enough jobs in America, but the solution is deregulation rather than regulation of international trade. He claims that American car manufacturers are suffering, but the solution for that is not to tax the import of goods from abroad, but to make better stuff. No one wants an American car, because - frankly - American cars suck. Once upon a time, under Hoover, America manufactured watches that counted a 58 minute hour. Rather than allow people to continue to buying superior watches from Switzerland, the government decided to put a tariff on Swiss watches and provoked the Swiss into boycotting American products like cars, typewriters, air conditioning, and so forth. The policy is as stupid now as it was back then.

Hopefully Trump will deliver better economic policies than his rhetoric suggests, he has for example spoken about the importance of deregulation and making it easy for people to start businesses and employ people. Perhaps his patriotic protectionist parlance was just pitching to the crowd.

Fallacies of the Redistributionists

One of the favourite arguments of the redistributionists is that if you tax the rich and give it to the poor then the poor will spend it in their local economy which will get the economy going, rather than what the rich will do, which is "just" invest it or buy luxury goods.

I call these economic half-truths because, as Frederic Bastiat explained in his introduction to Economic Sophisms, "We must confess that our adversaries have a marked advantage over us in the discussion. In very few words they can announce a half-truth; and in order to demonstrate that it is incomplete, we are obliged to have recourse to long and dry dissertations."

It is true that if you take money from the rich and give it to the poor the poor will go into the shops and spend it.  However, people who say that redistributing wealth stimulates the economy have not yet realised that saved money is also money that is being used and is being productive. It could be as an asset in a bank to base loans off of. Once those loans are made the money is no longer in the hands of rich people in the practical sense anyway. It's now in the hands of the business owner, the staff, the suppliers, and then it circulates because those people spend it in their local economy. Therefore all that is happening is a different group of people are now spending the money in their local economy.

The thing is that money is not being raised or created out of thin air. It is already circulating in the economy. It is in capital investments which do improve the regular man's living standard in a more nuanced way. When rich people invest in businesses it allows those businesses to create products and services which contribute to peoples well-being. If those businesses are successful that is a sign they have created something that people want, if they are not the money gets taken away from the investor, which creates a natural tendency for the money to collect with people who are good at investing in companies that create things that people actually want. If the resources are being used to create goods that people buy, how can those same resources be used to make machines and tools?

As a friend explained, many people get befuddled when money is introduced. We can use grain seeds as an analogy for money. You can either eat grain or save it for planting for next years harvest. The more seeds you save the larger your harvest will be the next year. The harvest is symbolic of the abundance of products that capital investments make. If there was very little grain after the harvest the price of that grain would be very high, however if there was much of it it would be sold very cheaply. In accordance with the laws of supply and demand, the more things are produced the cheaper those goods and services become and this, broadly speaking, is what raises living standards. Not so much rising wages, although they contribute, but the fall in the price of goods compared to wages.

Redistribution will not even solve the problem of inequality, despite the claims of the redistributionists to the contrary, because it doesn't address the cause of low incomes, which is that people have a lack of economically valuable skills. People who are highly skilled are often headhunted for jobs and can choose between positions as well as attracting higher salaries. Because their skills are sought after they never have to put up with poor treatment in the workplace if it bothers them. They are more likely to have friendly, supportive bosses, or even become their own boss.

When you redistribute wealth you the people you redistribute it to have not become any more economically productive. They do not have any new skills. Broadly speaking, they are just going to go out and spend the cash in the shops which means it will end up right back in the pockets of the people who have been taxed to redistribute! And not without any harmful effects! It'd be like if a store owner gives a kid $20 and the kid buys $20 worth of product from the store, how has the economy grown?

This is an exercise in taking money from the deep end of the pool and throwing it into the shallow end, while spilling it along the way on government, administrators, bureaucrats and tax collectors - not to mention the lawyers, accountants and lobbyists who have now made lucrative careers in trying to help the rich avoid paying the redistributive taxes. Those people could otherwise be doing more productive work serving the public. The cash is still going to go back where it came from.

The real solution to the problem of income inequality is not bribing those at the top down but bringing those at the bottom up. The best way to do this, sorry to redistributionists, is to make it easy as possible for people to start businesses and hire and fire people. When there are many jobs in the economy workers can easily move from one job into another, which means they are in charge. They can take a job, take advantage of on-the-job training and learn skills, then move on to another job and do the same thing again, until they are so highly skilled that they can get a supervisory position or a management position, or create their own job. That is real class mobility. Well-intention ed interventions in the free market such as minimum wages, occupational licensing, red tape and regulations, patents, labour laws, and countless others, actually make the condition of workers worse over the long term because they have less jobs to choose from - this means they may have to admit poor working conditions and bad management because they can't just walk into another job at any time. Everything the left thinks is good for workers is bad for workers. Even if many of the jobs are bad and poorly paid they still make it difficult for management to treat staff poorly and get away with it, and no one needs stay in those jobs for very long anyway, just to tide them over until they can get something better or until they have mastered the skills and someone else will take them on for more.